This thread will explore the subject of the Chinese military, its influence in Chinese foreign policy, and what rising Chinese military power means for the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Here's a 2003 report from the Council on Foreign Relations, entitled "Chinese Military Power." Here's a quick summary of the findings:


This Task Force finds that although China is in the midst of
a comprehensive modernization program, the Chinese military is
at least two decades behind the United States in terms of military
technology and capability. Moreover, the Task Force judges that
if the United States continues to dedicate significant resources to
improving its military forces, as expected, the balance between the
United States and China, both globally and in Asia, is likely to
remain decisively in America’s favor beyond the next twenty
years.
The Task Force notes that the Taiwan Strait is an area of nearterm
military concern. For the next decade, a focal point of Chinese
military development will likely remain achieving the ability
to influence Taiwan’s choices about its political future or, failing
that, preventing Taiwan from achieving formal independence.
Although U.S. forces would ultimately prevail in a military crisis
or conflict, Beijing might be able to impose serious risks and
costs on the U.S. military if the United States concluded that it
was necessary to commit air and naval forces to battle with China
in defense of Taiwan. Any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would
have an extremely adverse impact on the strategic landscape in Asia,
regardless of the military outcome.Therefore, the most critical aim
of U.S. strategy in the cross-strait situation must be to deter and
minimize the chances that such a crisis will occur.
The Task Force recommends specific milestones to gauge the
pace of Chinese military modernization as China acquires limited
power-projection capabilities. The Task Force has also developed
indicators that would signal major shifts away from these current
priorities.

Here's a link to Sino Defence Today, a UK-based web site that reports news about the Chinese military. This is a place where you can find out, for example, that China plans to launch its first aircraft carrier by 2013.

From BBC, this is worrisome news. China has announced a nearly 18 percent increase in its military budget. The Pentagon estimates that China spent between $97 billion and $139 billion last year on its forces. Granted, that's much less than the more than half-trillion dollars that the U.S. may spend next year, but U.S. officials are still worried about why the Chinese feel the need for sharply higher military spending. What do they plan to do with that added capability?

As Google News reports:

An annual Pentagon report on China on Monday said Beijing's lack of transparency posed risks to stability, voicing concern over how it would use its expanding military power.

China is developing cruise and ballistic missiles capable of striking aircraft carriers and other warships at sea, tested an anti-satellite weapon last year and fielded new intercontinental ballistic missiles, the report said.

The report also cited another growing source of concern -- numerous cyber intrusions into US and other computer networks around the world over the past year, apparently from within China.

"I think the biggest thing for people to be concerned about, really, is the fact that we don't have that kind of strategic understanding of the Chinese intentions," said David Sedney, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asian affairs.

"And that leads to uncertainty. That leads to a readiness to hedge against the possibility that China's development will go in ways that the Chinese right now say it won't," he said.

The article added that

The report said China's military modernization was being driven in the near-term by preparations for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of US intervention in a crisis.

"However, analysis of China's military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other contingencies such as conflict over resources or disputed territories," it said.

Everyone knows that no one can challenge the US militarily. We are just too powerful, the US outspends every other nation in terms of military spending. Although the Chinese gov't has increased their annual military spending in recent years, it is a pittance compared to what we spend. It doesn't make sense for China to try to challenge the US or even go to war w/ us, we are their largest export market. If they go to war with us, they will definitely lose and their economy will suffer because it is so intertwined with ours.

Politicians and military analyst will reiterate that China is a military threat to justify arms sales to Japan, Taiwan and other nations. Defense contractors benefit and tax payers lose. Remember the 'Star Wars' program and missile defense under the Reagan/Bush era. It's to create fear so that we go along with the program. The US needs an enemy or will create one to justify increased defense spending.

How much does the US spend each year?

According to Global Issues.org, China will spend $122 billion on its military and the U.S. will spend $771 billion. Even without the $75-80 billion that the U.S. is spending annually on the Iraq war, U.S. military expenditures are vastly higher.