Member
Registered: 02-18-08
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I've heard meteorologists say that if you have a bad winter your likely to see a more severe number of outbreaks of Tornadoes. If you think about it, it does make sense. In my area we hardly get snow, the conditions have to be just right or no cigar. Anyway, they say that during a bad winter the weather pattern is obviously in your favor if you like winter storms. The jet stream and that is in place. So, when Spring comes the jet stream is basically in the same area and you get the same systems coming up only with warm moist air in place. That's what I heard around my neck of the woods. Who knows.
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Junior Member
Registered: 03-11-08
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This same question was recently presented to a NWS meteorologist in the Tulsa forecast office. As one might expect, their is no direct correlation between the two. It was advised however, that over the past 2007/2008 winter the Gulf of Mexico stayed warmer than normal due to this years upper weather patterns. Given that the big component for Oklahoma's dynamic weather is cool Canadian cold fronts and surface-moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico, it can only mean some meaningful magnitude of enhancement. Its all about cycles and alot of educated guesswork. No exact science for weather phenomena. Speaking of cycles. One helpful pointer might be the tornado historical trends. Based on data i've found, it peaks every 10 years or so and fluctates. Year to date we are already well above normal averages (Link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html).
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Junior Member
Registered: 03-11-08
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I forgot to mention... As it pertains to peaks, our last peak was in 1999, if you abide by my 10 year or so trend, 2008 looks to be active.
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